Remember that I post this (https://careyourpresent.com/2022/10/18/bull-is-back-buy-buy-buy-before-it-is-too-late/) few days ago when there was a big rally in US market? Did you buy, sell or wait?
If you observe the price action carefully for recent weeks (especially for those who like Reits), when US crashes at night, the next day SG market also move down, especially Reits. When US rally, SG market especially Reit moves up few bids then come down again. What does this tell you? There is no strength in Reits which are sensitive to interest rates.
If you look at the rate tonight. US 10Y is 4.11%, US2Y is 4.53%, US6M is 4.46. How can Reits go uptrend again?
Of course, it won’t go one straight line down or one straight line up so you will have the opportunity to trade if you are nimble enough. I did a recent quick trade – bought FCT at $2.04 on 17 Oct 2022, sold at $2.12 on 18 Oct 2022, and bought back at $2.04 on 19 Oct 2022.
Remember that I have mentioned about risk free premium rates in my last post?
Let me screenshot again on what I have wrote earlier (see below).
Many of the good Reits with strong sponsors like MIT MLOG AREIT FCT are close to 6% yield now. For those with lots of funds, can start to buy some. Pace and plan your buy. Can slowly DCA down if it goes down more. Always have some margin of safety, assuming that the DPU will drop while interest rate will raise to 5%..7% etc, think and plan what is your comfort level to start buying and ask yourself if your funds can last how long if the price keeps going down?
Of course, there is a chance that the market may suddenly U-turn (although I think it is unlikely given that interest rate still going up). But if you missed buying some at 6% now, will you regret?
Besides Reits, please don’t forget about netcash defensive companies. Good to get some after doing your research. Diversity is always good but not over diversify.
Lastly, I think some black swan event may happen soon to crash the market if we based on the “old folk tales of the coming Eclipses under Metaphysics” that I have mentioned few times in my blog before. Let’s wait and see if it really happens.
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