If you refer to my past post, we have indeed hit 18k BTC last night. See how accurate this is?
A picture speaks a thousand words, below is the updated regression chart of BTC half a month later.
We have indeed reach -1 SD (-18K) since my last post.
Will we reach the darker green line -2SD?
Let’s look at the price of BTC from another point of view.
HISTORY! We have been learning history since we are young. Regarding of trader, investor, many people like to look at past trend to learn more about price history in order to predict the future (of course assuming the fundamental remains the same for the future). Let’s look at the history of Bitcoin.
If we look at https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bitcoin.asp
- Launched in 2009, Bitcoin is the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.
- Unlike fiat currency, Bitcoin is created, distributed, traded, and stored using a decentralized ledger system known as a blockchain.
- Bitcoin’s history as a store of value has been turbulent; it has gone through several boom and bust cycles over its relatively short lifespan.
- As the earliest virtual currency to meet widespread popularity and success, Bitcoin has inspired a host of other cryptocurrencies in its wake.
Bitcoin is a very volatile. There are many ups and downs every few years. Going All Time High, then drawn down 80-90% to All Time Low. Many people argue that Bitcoin is worthless and useless. However, crypto enthusiastic would say Bitcoin is digital gold. But aren’t real gold useless and is ponzi too? Similar to real gold, value of Bitcoin is the perceived value by everyone. The question is in future, how will people perceived it? Personally I think Crypto will be the future – Bitcoin will likely be a the main coin with dominance dropping, all other alternate coins will die, maybe left ETH 2.0 and some other L1s L2s.
Let’s Look at the table below from history point of view.
We are currently at the 73% mark. Will we reach the 80%, 85%, 90% mark soon? Did you notice that 80% coincide with the -2SD from my regression analysis?
Adding on to the very bad macro condition, Fed tightening, hyperinflation, wars, food issue, energy issue etc, I believe that we will reach it soon.
Looking at the price pattern for this 3rd cycle of BTC, quite likely we may have a 90% drop until around 6800 BTC! By then, it would be capitulation and many would have given up, believing that Crypto is scam which will reach zero. That’s the time where big shark will come in.
Let me give a bold price prediction, I believe we will reach -2SD (or 80% drop from ATH) soon at least, with the very worst case where we will reach 6800 (90% drop from ATH). From Metaphysics/Astrology point of view, we will reach this point at the 4th quarter after Eclipse!