Category: Crypto

In whatever investment that one do, we would always like to know if the big sharks are invested in the particular investments which you are in. How do you find out? In Traditional Finance, we can know from SEC filings, announcement from companies investor relations etc after the trades are done. If you want more real time trade, you can use Bloomberg but that would usually set you back about 5 digits cost monthly, which is impossible for most retail traders.

However, Crypto is very very different. We can see real time trade using simple tools.

Yes! Blockchain scanner Etherscan, Arbiscan etc.

How much does it cost? Free!!! All transaction are transparent to all users of Crypto regardless if you are retail or sharks. You can even track their public wallets if you know how to find them (also see what are Crypto wallets?).

The main idea is that these whale wallets usually have an unfair advantages of information/trades as compared to typical retails (similar to Traditional Finance). We can see their trades and decide if we should do the same trade or simply just learn from how these sharks think. .

For example, if you suddenly see many whale wallets (not just one) put in their money to buy a token of a particular DeFi, we can conclude that the token price will move soon (of course please do your usual fundamental research on the Crypto, e.g. Tokenomics). Of course, the vice versa is true. If you see many sharks start to run/sell the token, it is better that you run too before it is too late.

The key question is: How do we Track Whale Wallets?

Method 1: Most simple method (but you need to pay)

Use Nansen’s Smart Money – they have done the hardwork for you but of course you need to pay.

You can use Nansen’s “Smart Money” feature.

Debank has a list • Create your own list.

Method 2: Create your own list of whale wallets.

Of course you can take the free list from Debank but the list is quite limited I feel.

Another method is to create and keep your own whale wallets simply using Blockchain scanners.

How?

Let’s do an example of the recently very popular GMX Tokens (with repeat shilling by many CT).

Three Simple Steps:

Step 1: Go to Arbiscan. Search for GMX. You should be able to find the token.

Step 2: Click “Holders”, you will get the top holders of the token “GMX”.

Step 3: Copy the address of the “Whale Wallet” that you want to find out more and put in example Debank (of course you can use Zapper, Apeboard Etc. You can refer to here). For example, I have copied the 7th Wallet in the screenshot above into Debank. From there I can observe what this whale is selling/buying/trading etc. After which, I need to decide if I wish to add this wallet into my Whale Wallet list.

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Stablecoins are like cash equivalents in Crypto. There are the cornerstone in Crypto and the so called safe heavens in Cryptos. There are many stablecoins in the market. The more prominent “collateral backed” stablecoins are USDT, USDC, BUSD, TUSD etc. Kindly note the ” ” in my previous statement. There are many stories, FUD, reports about how much these coins are really backed. No one really know.

Of course there are also other stablecoins such as your Excellency Justin USDD algo-stable coins and the famous collapsed UST etc. Let’s look are the top 1o stablecoins in term of MarketCap.

Currently in terms of Marketcap, the biggest stablecoin is USDT.

There are many many FUD about USDT. Will USDT really collapse or depegged? If it really collapse, can you imagine what will happened to the other coins, even the “bluechips” coins such as ETH and BTC?

Of course, it may happen or it may not. No one will know for now but there are many prediction and guesses by people. Personally I think it would happen eventually. For those who have been reading my blogs would have know I am a believer of using Metaphysics to predict market (of course on top of the usual Fundamental Analysis). Remember the last point of my post on Metaphysics earlier?

Metaphysics predict that the 2nd half of the year will be bad, especially after the next eclipse. Would this be the collapse of USDT?

Look at the Marketcap of USDT since May. Would this signify the start of bank run? 80B to 65B Marketcap. In addition, why FTX don’t use USDT as USD?

Recently I saw this CT (see below). Of course many people would say that this is FUD and believe so. It is always FUD unless it really happened. However, if it really happened, would it be too late for you to run? Think back, did you manage to run Luna/UST when it collapse? How fast was the collapse?

“FUD news” + “Metaphyiscs” + General Market Macro signify that 2nd half of the year will be bad. Are you prepared? Or do you believe in the recently rally in Crypto for the past few days? Think through and decide for yourself!

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Index investing investing is a very popular of doing investing in traditional finance. What is index investing? Refer to the definition below.

Many people know and admit that they can’t beat the market. Hence, the easiest and most logical way is to join them since you can’t beat them. In Traditional Finance, people will go dollar cost average/value cost average index etf/funds. Some people buy the Vanguard World ETF (VWARA.L, VWRD, VT, VTI, IWDA, SPY etc), or in Singapore Context, dca STI ETF using DBS Invest Saver, Poems Share builders, robot investing platforms like Endowus etc.

For Crypto, it is even more volatile. We have seen drawn down in the 60-90% in the current bear, even for the more prominent “blue-chip” Crypto ETH, BTC etc. Of course one can dca ETH BTC weekly/monthly using exchange like FTX, CDC. However, there is no auto-rebalancing in these CEX. Furthermore, not your key not your coin!

What should we do if we wish to take the approach of index investing in CRYPTO?

One of the more innovative way we have now is using GLP. What is GLP?

In Short, GLP in Arbitrium is about 50% ETH/BTC with the rest in stablecoins and it will rebalance.

I have extracted the more relevant section of GMX/GLP guide from the site itself as below.

GLP consists of an index of assets used for swaps and leverage trading. It can be minted using any index asset and burnt to redeem any index asset. The price for minting and redemption is calculated based on (total worth of assets in index including profits and losses of open positions) / (GLP supply).

For Arbitrum, holders of the GLP token earn Escrowed GMX rewards and 70% of platform fees distributed in ETH. For Avalanche, holders of the GLP token earn Escrowed GMX rewards and 70% of platform fees distributed in AVAX. Note that the fees distributed are based on the number after deducting referral rewards and the network costs of keepers, keeper costs are usually around 1% of the total fees.

Rebalancing?

The fees to mint GLP, burn GLP or to perform swaps will vary based on whether the action improves the balance of assets or reduces it. For example, if the index has a large percentage of ETH and a small percentage of USDC, actions which further increase the amount of ETH the index has will have a high fee while actions which reduces the amount of ETH the index has will have a low fee.

Token weights are adjusted to help hedge GLP holders based on the open positions of traders. For example, if a lot of traders are long ETH, then ETH would have a higher token weight, if a lot of traders are short, then a higher token weight will be given to stablecoins.

If token prices are increasing, then the price of GLP will increase as well, even if a lot of traders have a long position on the platform. The portion reserved for long positions can be treated as stable in terms of its USD value since if prices increase the profits from that portion will be used to pay traders, and if prices decrease, the losses of traders will keep the USD value of the reserve portion the same.

If a lot of traders are short and larger weights are given to stablecoins, then GLP holders would have a synthetic exposure to the tokens being shorted, e.g. if ETH is being shorted then the price of GLP will decrease if the price of ETH decreases, if the price of ETH increases then the price of GLP will increase from the losses of the short positions.

Who say we can’t do index investing in CRYPTO?

However, please do your own due diligence before you start to invest in GLP.

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